Copyright 2000 www.cosmopolis.ch Louis Gerber All rights
reserved.
The US presidential election A GOP majority in the House of
Representatives
Democrats can at best expect a 50-50 stalemate in the Senate
Article added on November 10, 2000
The close presidential and congressional races
drove people to the polls. They realized that their vote would matter.
Regarding the presidential race, the absentee votes in
Florida will decide who will become the next president since, according to AP,
Bush is leading by a tiny margin of 327 votes. Based on past experiences, the absentee votes come mostly from military men serving overseas and tend to
be more in favor of the Republicans. Absentee votes could be posted until election day and have to arrive in Florida within ten days
of the general
election to be valid. Therefore, the official result of the election in
Florida will be known on November 17.
The United States could head towards a
constitutional and political crisis. Governor Bush
presents himself as the future president although the outcome of the election
is not known yet. Gore and the Democratic electoral team seem determined to do
whatever necessary to prevent Bush from winning, if necessary, by taking legal
action. Legal
battles could take several weeks. By the way, in other states such as Iowa and Wisconsin, the margin between Gore and Bush is just a few thousand
votes, with absentee votes still to be counted. The Republicans could be
tempted to ask for recounts too. The brilliant French observer of American society,
Alexandre de Tocqueville, wrote in 1831 that, ultimately, everything in the
United States will be decided by a judge. Luckily, President Clinton stays in
power until January and, therefore, there is no need to rush. Both camps should remain calm and rational. The uncertainty of the
outcome could make financial markets nervous. Considering that the US economic
boom is
largely based on credit and the public debt is gigantic, an erosion of
confidence in the American economy could make the stock bubble burst and lead
to a hard economic landing with global consequences.
The Constitution is to Americans what the
monarchy is to the British. The respect of its procedures, even if imperfect,
is imperative. Regarding Florida, the Democrats and private citizens took
legal action against a "confusing" list of candidates. Several
thousand people mistakenly voted for Buchanan instead of Gore. But as long as
no electoral fraud can be proven or substantial evidence that voters have been
disenfranchised can be found that their right to vote has been infringed, it
seems unlikely that a revote will be called because the judge is likely to
rule that the confused voters should have asked for help or a new ballot
rather than turning in an invalid ballot. These complaints have few chances to end in a
re-election.
The congressional elections took place in the shadow of the presidential race.
But the legislative branches are not less important than the presidency,
especially considering the American system of checks and balances. With two
House races still undecided, forecasts show the Republicans ahead with at
least 220 seats won. This means the GOP maintains a tiny but absolute majority
in the 435-seat House. The Democrats won 211 seats, independents took 2 seats. In
the Senate, GOP candidates will occupy 50 of the 100 seats; the Democrats
have 49 seats in their hands; one seat is still too close to call.
The next American president will either govern
with a tiny majority, in the case of Bush, or a tiny congressional majority
against him, in the case of Gore. Anyhow, the next president will have to
govern in the center, to reconcile Democrats and Republicans and is unlikely
to set a radical agenda. Al Gore is a man who divides people more than he
unites them. Furthermore, as Vice President, he is closely connected to the
eight-year era of bitter division in Washington under Bill Clinton whereas
Bush, as a Washington outsider and Texas Governor with a record which clearly
shows him as a man who can unite Democrats and Republicans, seems to be the
better man for the job. As things look on November 10, Bush is more
likely to become the next president of the United States.
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For American media, think tanks, parties,
presidential candidates and governmental links:
Links. For the biography of Al Gore and other
political articles: Politics.
