New Hampshire primary
Hillary Clinton and John
Article added on January 9, 2008 at 14:00 London time
Results and analysis
The New Hampshire primaries have offered another surprising result. In the
pre-exit polls, Barack Obama had a clear advance. The pre-exit polls
predicted pretty accurately the results of Obama and Edwards, but were dead
wrong on Clinton. After Bill in 1992, the Clinton family has another
Many voters may have seen the video showing Hillary Clinton close to tears
while answering a question of a voter. The normally ice-cold lady showed
emotions, which may have helped her to mobilize additional voters. According
to exit polls, in stark contrast to the
where Obama was the first choice among women, half of the female voters cast
their ballot for Hillary Clinton.
Instead of the predicted 30%, some 39% of Democratic primary voters chose
Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, who finished second with 37%, in front of
John Edwards with disappointing 17%.
On the dark side for Hillary Clinton are the polls who suggest that Barack
Obama would have a better chance in November to beat the Republican
candidate. The useful vote (vote utile in French) may well play a
role. If you are a Democrat, you will support the Democratic candidate most
likely to beat the Republican contender for the presidency.
On the Republican side, the New Hampshire primary offered the expected
comeback of John McCain with 37% in front of Mitt Romney with 32%, Mike
Huckabee with 11% and Rudy Giuliani with 9%.
According to media reports, Rudy Giuliani had invested some $2.5 million in
his New Hampshire campaign and visited the state several times in the fall
of 2007. Therefore, 9% is a pretty disappointing result.
Rudy Giuliani will fully kickoff his campaign in Florida, the first
delegate-rich state. He risks to lack momentum compared to John McCain, who
still has the handicap of an underfinanced campaign. However, since last
summer, when his campaign came almost to a halt because of financial
mismanagement, after which key campaign staffers resigned, John McCain has
well recovered to be the hot favorite again.
As in Iowa, Mitt Romney could not benefit from his investment of time and
money in New Hampshire. He has a slick image. The record voter turnout in
New Hampshire has not helped him.
The presidential race has only began. The moment of truth will come on
February 5th, the Super Tuesday, when 24 states will hold caucuses or
If the wind of change will remain one of the keywords in the presidential
campaign, the Democrats will have a strategic advantage, because Republicans
have been in power for the last 8 years. Furthermore, the American economy
is in a slump, maybe in a recession.
“It's the economy, stupid”, may play a key role in November. Only somebody like
John McCain with a maverick image within the Republican party could turn it
around for the GOP.
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