New Hampshire primary
Hillary Clinton and John McCain win
Article added on January 9, 2008 at 14:00 London time
  
Results and analysis

The New Hampshire primaries have offered another surprising result. In the pre-exit polls, Barack Obama had a clear advance. The pre-exit polls predicted pretty accurately the results of Obama and Edwards, but were dead wrong on Clinton. After Bill in 1992, the Clinton family has another comeback kid.

Many voters may have seen the video showing Hillary Clinton close to tears while answering a question of a voter. The normally ice-cold lady showed emotions, which may have helped her to mobilize additional voters. According to exit polls, in stark contrast to the Iowa Caucus, where Obama was the first choice among women, half of the female voters cast their ballot for Hillary Clinton.

Instead of the predicted 30%, some 39% of Democratic primary voters chose Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, who finished second with 37%, in front of John Edwards with disappointing 17%.

On the dark side for Hillary Clinton are the polls who suggest that Barack Obama would have a better chance in November to beat the Republican candidate. The useful vote (vote utile in French) may well play a role. If you are a Democrat, you will support the Democratic candidate most likely to beat the Republican contender for the presidency.



On the Republican side, the New Hampshire primary offered the expected comeback of John McCain with 37% in front of Mitt Romney with 32%, Mike Huckabee with 11% and Rudy Giuliani with 9%.

According to media reports, Rudy Giuliani had invested some $2.5 million in his New Hampshire campaign and visited the state several times in the fall of 2007. Therefore, 9% is a pretty disappointing result.

Rudy Giuliani will fully kickoff his campaign in Florida, the first delegate-rich state. He risks to lack momentum compared to John McCain, who still has the handicap of an underfinanced campaign. However, since last summer, when his campaign came almost to a halt because of financial mismanagement, after which key campaign staffers resigned, John McCain has well recovered to be the hot favorite again.

As in Iowa, Mitt Romney could not benefit from his investment of time and money in New Hampshire. He has a slick image. The record voter turnout in New Hampshire has not helped him.

The presidential race has only began. The moment of truth will come on February 5th, the Super Tuesday, when 24 states will hold caucuses or primary elections.

If the wind of change will remain one of the keywords in the presidential campaign, the Democrats will have a strategic advantage, because Republicans have been in power for the last 8 years. Furthermore, the American economy is in a slump, maybe in a recession. “It's the economy, stupid”, may play a key role in November. Only somebody like John McCain with a maverick image within the Republican party could turn it around for the GOP.

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