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Super Tuesday

Added on February 16, 2008
Finally, the final results of the election in New Mexico are known: Hillary Clinton won the election and 14 of the 26 delegates. In total, she got 73,105 votes - 1709 more than Barack Obama. In the overall race, Obama still leads in the race to the Democratic presidential nomination.

P.S. Febraury 7, 2008
If the Republican presidential race should be decided early, this would not necessarily be an advantage for the GOP. If the fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama should dominate the news, many politically independent voters could simply forget the existence of John McCain, who could end like his friend Rudy Giuliani...

Added on February 7, 2008 at 21:04 Berlin time
In opposition to his announcement directly after Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney has withdrawn from the race to the White House. In his speech at the Conservative Political Action Committee, he praised John McCain, without endorsing him. At the same time, he did not mention support for John Huckabee, who was his rival in winning the conservative support. Huckabee announced that he would continue his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

Article added on February 7, 2008 at 14:35 Riga time
On Super Tuesday - February 5, 2008 - both the Democrats and the Republicans organized primaries and caucuses in over 20 states. The Democrats have already voted for 52% of their delegates, whereas on the Republican side, 41% of all party delegates, who will designate the Republican presidential candidate, have been determined.

According to CNN online on February 7, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has now won 823 delegates, Barack Obama 741 and John Edwards, who has dropped out of the race, 26. On the Republican side, the clear winner is Arizona senator John McCain with 680 delegates in front of Mitt Romney with 270, Mike Huckabee with 176 and Ron Paul with 16.

As predicted by most observers, the winner takes all system on the Republican side has brought a preliminary decision in the emergence of John McCain as the clear frontrunner. The race is not over yet, but he will be hard to beat.

Incidentally, the Republicans also know the system of unpledged delegates who do not have to indicate a candidate preference. However, the majority of them are elected like the pledged delegates. The 123 members of the Republican National Committee become automatically unpledged delegates. Out of a total of 2,380 delegates, 463 are unpledged delegates.

On the Democratic side, the situation is more complicated, not least because the Democrats still have superdelegates. Some 20% of all delegates, almost 800 people, will be superdelegates.

Superdelegates are current and former office holders and party officials, including members of the House of Representatives, the Senate, governors and former presidents such as Bill Clinton. At the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, which will be held from August 25 to 28, the delegates and the superdelegates will designate the Democratic presidential candidate. Unlike the delegates, the superdelegates do not have to vote for a specific candidate, but can change their preferences at any time.

Unlike the Republicans with their winner takes all system, the Democrats rely on proportional representation, as long as a candidate passes a 15% threshold. Therefore, the Democratic race remains wide open, maybe until the national convention.

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On Super Tuesday, John McCain was heavily aided by the fact that the former Arkansas governor and ordained Southern Baptist Minister Mike Huckabee stayed in the race, therefore taking away crucial votes from the former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney.

In the end, Mike Huckabee managed to win five Southern states, compared to Mitt Romney's seven states and John McCain's nine states, including the delegate rich New York and California. Mike Huckabee's strong support from his conservative and evangelical base could make him an ideal running mate for John McCain, who will need their support in order to beat the Democrats, while at the same time not alienating the centrist voters.

Both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee announced to continue their fight for the Republican nomination, therefore mutually sinking their chances to get the nomination. This is the best possible news for John McCain.

Democrats will have to think twice before they vote for Hillary Clinton, because with her in the race against John McCain, the contrast between the two candidates would not be as sharp.



Hillary Clinton is desperately looking for cash. It seems that most of her donators have already given her the legal maximum, and she has difficulties in finding new contributors.

Barack Obama on the other hand makes new millions every day. His previous contributors mostly gave little money and, therefore, still can give more. Furthermore, he has created an efficient and extremely popular movement, which can easily bring in new money.

The immediate outlook looks bright for Barack Obama: he has excellent chances of winning the coming primaries in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and the U.S. Virgin Island (all on February 9), in Maine (February 10), the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia (all on February 12), Hawaii and Wisconsin (both on February 19). Hillary Clinton has currently the best chances of winning the key states of Ohio and Texas (March 4). In Wyoming and Mississippi, Barack Obama may have the upper hand again.

In short, the very contested Democratic nomination is as unclear as ever. It remains to be seen whether the two candidates will inflict each other too much pain in the coming weeks. For the Democrats, it would be best if they could present a ticket Obama - Clinton or Clinton - Obama.



An analysis of the Super Tuesday vote offers some expected results as well as some surprises. Again, the Democrats managed to draw much larger crowds to the polls than the Republicans. The Democratic base is fed up with eight years of Republican rule under President George W. Bush. This time, they want to get it right.

On the Republican side, for the moment, no candidate really pleases the party base. The frontrunner, John McCain, is unpopular among conservatives and evangelicals. He draws his support from moderate Republicansindependents and people ready to fight on in Iraq, but without torturing people. In the end however, John McCain will not only need the independent vote, but also the conservative vote. Republican voter turnout in November will have to be huge in order to beat either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton managed to get the Latino vote in California. Barack Obama will have to appeal to Latinos more than before in order to get into the White House.

Not surprisingly, Barack Obama swept the African American vote, crucial in the Southern states. Hillary Clinton on her hand managed to get the older, the female, and especially the older White female vote. Her voters were mostly looking for “experience”.

Barack Obama, with his message of hope and change”, is very popular among young - male and female - voters. The real surprise however is that Barack Obama manages to get the vote of the upper middle class, the wealthier and higher educated Democratic voters, whereas Hillary Clinton relies more on employees and workers.

In the 1950s, popular music singers and groups invented soul music, a secular version of gospel music, with love and other themes instead of the holy gospel. Barack Obama has taken the gospel from the churches into politics, replacing the message of God by the secular message of “
hope and change”, whereas Mike Huckabee continues to try to introduce the religious gospel into politics, endangering the separation of state and church.

Barack Obama is much more popular than Mike Huckabee. He draws huge crowds to quickly sold out places. He has reached a kind of rock star status. One wonders if these feverish crowds manage to keep a critical distance towards their idol. Neither Mike Huckabee nor Barack Obama are very reassuring as future American presidents.

John McCain with his war in Iraq has not the message that the majority of the American people wants to hear. Hillary Clinton comes with Bill and all his scandals and failed policies in her baggage. The majority has had enough of the Clintons. In November 2008, the American people will have a difficult decision to make
.









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