Clinton wins Pennsylvania
The best possible outcome for
Article added on April 23, 2008 at 13:44 Capri time
The result of the Pennsylvania
Democratic primary of April 22 has brought the best possible outcome for
John McCain: Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania by the substantial margin of
10 points. This is good enough for her and her supporters to claim that they
can still turn around the Democratic nomination, but not enough to convince
enough superdelegates and the larger public that she really can do it.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will continue to attack each other, giving
John McCain the chance to present himself as a statesman.
With 99% of Pennsylvania's precincts tallied, Hillary Clinton led Barack
Obama by 55% to 45% (1,249,577 to 1,034,686 votes).
In order to turn the race around, Hillary Clinton had to win by a 20%
margin. She would need 20% margin wins not only in Pennsylvania, the biggest
of the remaining states, with over 150 pledged delegates to be allocated by
a proportional system, but in all remaining primaries. Since this is
impossible, she will end up with less pledged delegates than Obama.
After her win in Pennsylvania, Clinton still trails Obama when it comes to the popular vote
too, which is not necessary
to win the nomination, but which would give her an argument in her eyes to claim that
she deserves to be the Democratic presidential candidate.
A majority of the Democratic superdelegates will not dare to overturn the Democrats
public vote - anything else would simply be undemocratic. Barack Obama will
become the Democratic candidate, but until then, the Clintons and their
pundits may inflict too much pain on
Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be stopped by arithmetic but by
money. Her campaign is in the red again. Most of her previous donators seem
to have given her the legal maximum already. It will be difficult for her to
find new supporters because, by now, most Democratic voters have realized
that her battle has become hopeless.
Money may bring Clinton's
campaign to an early end. She will surely compete in both of the next
primaries, in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6. The polls show Clinton
and Obama more or less in a tie in Indiana. In North Carolina however, where
38% of registered Democrats are African Americans, Barack Obama maintains
impressive double digit leads in the polls.
After Indiana and North Carolina, voices will rise again asking for Clinton
to pull out. Her financial problems may force her to withdraw; she would of
course sell it as an act of great statesmanship.
The longer the battle between Obama and Clinton goes on, the better for
McCain. If the Democrats fight it out at the DNC Convention in Denver from
August 25 to August 28, enough Democrats may still be angry in November. The
earlier the decision is taken, the better the chances for Barack Obama,
who will need a certain healing time to unite all Democrats behind him.
Until today, Barack Obama looks like a Teflon guy. Neither his 20 year
friendship with the controversial Reverend Jeremy Wright nor his association
with the shady businessman Tony Rezko nor his acquaintance with the former
Weather Underground terrorists Bernardine Dohrn and William Ayers could do
him any harm. As long as he distances himself from their inexcusable actions
and statements, he is safe. If it should surface that, in recent years, he
has given support to their views or actions, he might be done. As long as
there is no skeleton in his cupboard, there is no reason to bring him down.
If, against all odds, Hillary Clinton should come from behind with the help
of superdelegates, this would be the dream result for the Republicans.
Nobody polarizes more than Hillary Rodham Clinton. The Democrats would shoot
themselves in the foot.
After Pennsylvania, the chances that the old white male will win in November have
increased. He is the only one who would really bring change to Washington -
for the better.
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