Banerjee left the UPA government in India
With the outside support of Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, the government will survive a no-confidence vote and remain in power
Article added on September 21, 2012 at 12:54 Italian time
  
As reported yesterday, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had announced an Indian coalition breakup, with the six ministers from her Trinamool Congress party (TMC) resigning from the Indian government if some modest, desperately needed reforms go ahead as planned.

Both sides, Banerjee's TMC and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with the rest of the United Progressive Alliance decided to play hardball and stick to their decisions. Today, September 21, the two camps met for a last talk and to hand the resignation letters of the 6 TMC ministers to the prime minister. Probably all of the 19 TMC lawmakers no longer stand behind the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), turning the current coalition into a minority government. For the resignation of the 6 TMC national ministers to become formally official, the Indian President will have to accept their resignation, which will happen later today.

The six Congress Party ministers in the regional government of West Bengal announced that they would resign in a tit-for-tat move, one that is not really threatening Mamata Banerjee because the chief minister has a majority in West Bengal even without the support of the Congress Party.

On the national level, Manmohan Singh and his UPA coalition are pretty sure to survive a no-confidence vote in the Lok Sabha. The regional parties of former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati (21 Bahujan Samaj Party MPs) and of former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav (22 Socialist / Samajwadi Party MPs) with their combined 43 parliamentarians are likely to support the UPA government from the outside, maybe even with the ambition to join it. Both parties had submitted letters to the President of India pledging their support to the ruling UPA coalition.

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However, Mayawati and Mulayam Sing Yadav - much like Mamata Banerjee - have openly opposed the government's decision to open up the retail market to foreign competition, allowing up to 51% of FDI.

In this context, Indian media report that the government will partly rollback its decisions on diesel prices and increase the quota of subsidized cooking gas in order to appease both unhappy UPA members as well as outside supporters such as Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, who can claim credit for the compromise and therefore remain loyal to the government.

On September 20, 2012 the Trinamool Congress chairwoman Mamata Banerjee claimed that the central government was secretly tapping her phone calls. It was not the first time, she alleged. When she was the leader of a movement against land acquisition in Nandigram in 2006-07, she said she had already been the victim of phone tapping: “My phone malfunctioned because of tapping.” This cannot be excluded, but Banerjee aka Didi has not presented any proof for her allegations.

In addition, Didi stood firm on her rejection of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the multi-retail sector, which could bring needed competition to Asia's third largest economy with companies such as Walmart and Tesco entering the Indian market.

Not only Mamata Banerjee, but also the Indian National Congress party and other political forces have been less than helpful in reforming India. For instance, the major oppositional party, the BJP, is opposed to the opening of the retail-market too. Moreover, corruption within the current coalition remains rampant. Nevertheless, the opening of the retail market could mark the beginning of a new reform era.

Tonight at 8pm New Delhi time, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will explain the need for economic reform to the Indian people. Will his alliance stay in power until the end of the legislative period or are early elections looming? Anyway, substantial reforms have to follow because, in comparison with Brazil, China and other emerging nations, India lags far behind.